A strong December in North American and non-Asian territories left the global cinema box office market showing a modest contraction in 2024 – down 7% using current exchange rates, or 11% using historic currency rates, to US$30.1 billion, compared with US$33.9 billion in 2023.  Some analysts rejoiced that the downturn was not worse. 

“Given the limited release calendar of 2024, caused by the long-running actors’ and writers’ strikes in Hollywood 2023, this can be seen as a significant success. It is another testament of the theatrical industry’s resilience,” said London-based consultancy firm Gower Street Analytics. “A return to pre-pandemic levels was never expected for 2024,” the company added.

But the key parts of the theatrical market in Asia were weaker than that rosy, global picture.

Mainland China, normally accounting for a fifth or more of the global total and in 2020 and 2021 the world’s richest territory, went into sharp reverse last year.

Gross revenues fell by some 23% to RMB42.5 billion/US$5.8 billion, down from US$7.7 billion in 2023. That total is 27% below the 2017-19 average and 34% below 2019, the last normal year before Covid. 

With Russia, China had the dubious honour of being one of only two markets worldwide where the 2024 annual box office figure was lower than 2021.

Cinema revenues in South Korea were down only 5% year-on-year in local currency terms at KRW1.19 trillion and 2% lower when using ticket sales volume as the yardstick. 

But the modest recovery of late 2022 has stalled and the figures are still a woeful 45% below 2019. (Korea’s weakening currency makes comparison sicker still and translates as just US$818 million in dollar terms.)

Hong Kong, a much smaller market but one that has previously been a bellwether, was worth HK$1.34 billion/US$172 million. That was only a 6% year-on-year decline, but takes the Special Administrative Region back to 2011 levels of business (lower still, taking inflation into account).

Other Asia-Pacific territories are slower to produce definitive annual box office statistics (Japan and Australia will likely report at the end of January) or are considerably more opaque. 

While two mid-sized Southeast Asian territories – Vietnam and Indonesia – are likely to have enjoyed year-on-year growth, driven by a virtuous cycle of cinema construction, young demographics and growing film production volumes, the trend in Asia’s large and mature markets is a cause for concern.

China remains heavily regulated, with censorship, quotas and state-owned enterprises all having significant influence. Korea is essentially open and enjoys one of the highest volumes of new film releases in the world. 

But, in both countries, executives, analysts and commentators point to the difficulty of attracting young people into cinemas on a regular and habitual basis. They also point to audiences drifting away to streaming. 

Korea has one of the world’s most competitive streaming environments. And global corporations led by Netflix and Disney have invested billions of dollars into Korean TV content, making SVOD a powerful competitor. SVOD platforms can make movie stars and a wider, multi-device choice available for the same cost as a single cinema ticket.

In China, SVOD and AVOD platforms represent less of a threat than short-form, mobile content. According to consultancy iResearch, these achieved revenues of RMB48.4 billion/US$6.64 billion) in 2024. If correct, that means micro-drama revenues have overtaken theatrical cinema. – By Patrick Frater

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