The global ad market is on course for 4.6% growth this year, up from 3.9% growth last year, according to ZenithOptimedia’s new Advertising Expenditure Forecasts, published Monday (21 March). Global advertising expenditure will total US$579 billion in 2016, and will exceed US$600 billion in 2017, reaching US$603 billion by the end of the year.
The new forecasts show that despite “clear challenges” facing the global economy – including the ongoing slowdown in China – “advertisers’ confidence has remained largely unshaken”.
ZenithOptimedia gave three main reasons for its optimism – special events this year (U.S. election, Summer Olympics, UEFA Football championships, which are forecast to add a combined net US$1.6 billion to the global ad market in 2016), rapid recovery from the markets most affected by the eurozone crisis, and the emergence of rapidly growing markets that are now opening up to international
advertising.
Six of the 30 rapidly growing markets are in Asia – Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka.
The report forecasts adex in these 30 to grow at an average rate of 15% a year between 2015 and 2018 – more than three times faster than the global average – and to increase by US$3.9 billion to US$11.6 billion.
ZenithOptimedia divides Asia into three in its forecasts – Japan, advanced Asia and Fast-track Asia. Japan, the report says, “remains stuck in its rut of persistent low growth. We forecast average adspend growth of 1.8% a year between 2015 and 2018, the same rate that Japan has achieved over the last five years”.
Growth in advanced Asia – Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea – is expected to be a “disappointing” 2.8% in 2015, with Singapore continuing to suffer from a weak property market and slowdown in China and other emerging markets has hit exports from all markets. ZenithOptimedia expects growth in Advanced Asia to average 2.2% a year through to 2018.
Fast-track Asia – China, India, Indonesia...
The global ad market is on course for 4.6% growth this year, up from 3.9% growth last year, according to ZenithOptimedia’s new Advertising Expenditure Forecasts, published Monday (21 March). Global advertising expenditure will total US$579 billion in 2016, and will exceed US$600 billion in 2017, reaching US$603 billion by the end of the year.
The new forecasts show that despite “clear challenges” facing the global economy – including the ongoing slowdown in China – “advertisers’ confidence has remained largely unshaken”.
ZenithOptimedia gave three main reasons for its optimism – special events this year (U.S. election, Summer Olympics, UEFA Football championships, which are forecast to add a combined net US$1.6 billion to the global ad market in 2016), rapid recovery from the markets most affected by the eurozone crisis, and the emergence of rapidly growing markets that are now opening up to international
advertising.
Six of the 30 rapidly growing markets are in Asia – Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka.
The report forecasts adex in these 30 to grow at an average rate of 15% a year between 2015 and 2018 – more than three times faster than the global average – and to increase by US$3.9 billion to US$11.6 billion.
ZenithOptimedia divides Asia into three in its forecasts – Japan, advanced Asia and Fast-track Asia. Japan, the report says, “remains stuck in its rut of persistent low growth. We forecast average adspend growth of 1.8% a year between 2015 and 2018, the same rate that Japan has achieved over the last five years”.
Growth in advanced Asia – Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea – is expected to be a “disappointing” 2.8% in 2015, with Singapore continuing to suffer from a weak property market and slowdown in China and other emerging markets has hit exports from all markets. ZenithOptimedia expects growth in Advanced Asia to average 2.2% a year through to 2018.
Fast-track Asia – China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam – is forecast to grow at 8.9% in 2016, and at an average rate of 8.5% a year between 2015 and 2018, down from 11.9% a year between 2010 and 2015. China is the main engine of growth in fast-track Asia, and accounts for 74% of adspend in the category.
Online advertising is a major driver of global adspend growth.
Internet advertising as a whole is expected to grow at 15.7% this year – more than three times the global average rate – driven by social media (31.9%), online video (22.4%) and paid search (15.7%). “Internet advertising’s growth rate is slowing as it matures (it was 21.1% in 2014), but we expect it to remain in double digits for the rest of our forecast period,” ZenithOptimedia said.
“This sustained growth, combined with downgrades to television in Brazil and in China, has led us to forecast internet advertising to overtake television advertising globally in 2017, a year earlier than we forecast back in December,” the company added.
Mobile is a major growth driver. “The great majority of new internet advertising is targeted at mobile devices, thanks to their widespread adoption and their ever-tighter integration into consumers’ daily lives,” ZenithOptimedia said.
“We forecast that mobile advertising expenditure will increase by US$64 billion between 2015 and 2018, growing by 128% and accounting for 92% of new advertising dollars added to the global market over these years,” the company added.
“Rapid growth from countries that are relatively new to the international advertising market, combined with a resurgence of established markets that were damaged by the financial crisis, will keep the global ad market on track for healthy growth for at least the next few years,” said Jonathan Barnard, ZenithOptimedia’s head of forecasting.
Published on 21 March 2016