FANG companies (Amazon, Facebook, Netflix and Google) will retain more than 60% of online video revenue ex-China over the next five years, Media Partners Asia (MPA) said today as this year's Asia Pacific Video Operators Summit (APOS)gets under way in Bali.

But the "slower-growth" TV industry will remain dominant, with an 80% total market share by 2022.

In a landscape still dominated by TV, the Asia Pacific online video industry is on a sure path to more than double its share of video industry revenues ex-China from 9% in 2017 to 20% by 2023, MPA's analysis shows.

"Google-owned YouTube’s dominance is reflected by its 70-90% slice of a large and fast-growing online video ad pie in Australia, Japan, Southeast Asia and India. In addition, Amazon and Netflix have scaled quickly with subscription video offerings in Australia, India and Japan but have a long way to go in Southeast Asia and Korea. There’s also a long runway for more growth in India," MPA executive director Vivek Couto says.

Local and regional players with strong entertainment and sports IP together with, in many instances, large TV businesses, have invested in online video platforms to grab a bigger market share. This is espescially true in India, Korea and Japan, although Southeast Asia lags.

"The outlook remains in FANG’s favour however, with its aggregate market share maintained at 62% in 2023," MPA says.

"Such scale will dramatically alter growth and investment dynamics across key markets. We see significant upside for local and regional media platforms with attractive IP and strong execution as well as the appetite and patience to invest over the long term across digital video," Couto adds.

FANG’s share could also be greateronce Amazon Prime Video scales up in Australia and key markets across Southeast Asia. This is not yet included in the assumptions underlying MPA’s analysis.”

"Encouragingly, local and regional players with strong entertainment and sports IP and, in many instances, large TV businesses, have invested in online video platforms to grab a bigger market share. This is espescially true in India, Korea and Japan although Southeast Asia lags," MPA says.

YouTube and Facebook combined will account for 72% of online video advertising in Asia Pacific ex-China by 2023, versus 75% at end-2018.

In subscription-based online video, Amazon and Netflix’s combined share of the market should reach 35% in 2018 and grow to 37% by the end of 2023, although local and regional platforms are competing for and winning a share of incremental dollars in Australia, India, Japan, Korea and parts of Southeast Asia.

The Overall Video Industry

Asia Pacific advertising and subscription fees across TV and online video grew 3.9% ex-China in 2017 to reach US$60 billion. TV and online media continue to grow at different speeds, as expected, with TV revenues inching up 1.2% in 2017 while online video revenues expanded by 45% to US$5.2 billion.

MPA projects that total industry revenues will climb at a 3.8% CAGR over 2018-23 to reach US$77 billion by 2023, with online video scaling up by a 16% CAGR to reach US$15 billion in net terms by 2023 versus US$7.1 billion in 2018. TV will only grow at a 1.8% CAGR over the same period to reach US$62 billion by 2023.

By 2023, the largest TV and online video markets in Asia Pacific ex-China will be: Japan (US$27 billion), India (US$17 billion), Korea (US$9.2 billion) and Australia (US$8.2 billion). Southeast Asia will contribute US$11.1 billion by 2023. India will remain the fastest-growing video market, growing at an average annual rate of more than 8% over 2018-23, followed by Southeast Asia with 5% and Australia at 4.5%.

Online Video

Online video advertising, dominated by YouTube to date, continues to grow at a stellar pace, increasing by 47% in Asia Pacific ex-China to US$3.6 billion in 2017 and projected by MPA to climb at a 17% CAGR between 2018-23 to reach US$10.7 billion by 2022. Online video subscription fees are growing rapidly from a very low base, up 41% year-on-year in 2017 to reach US$1.7 billion, and forecast to grow at a 12% CAGR from 2018 to more than US$4 billion by 2023.

Japan and Australia will remain the leading markets for online video, contributing more than 55% to Asia Pacific revenues ex-China in 2023. The third-largest market will be India, which willl also be the fastest growing with a 26% CAGR over 2018-23, with Southeast Asia the second-fastest with a 21% CAGR over the same period.

The analysis covers 12 markets: Australia,India, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and six key markets in Southeast Asia, with a focus on consumer and advertiser spend, content costs and market share across key clusters.Excluded from MPA's analysis are potential all-in premium offerings from Disney, 21st Century Fox and Time Warner, "which are likely to start gaining traction at some point over the next five years as global media consolidation accelerates".